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When Will Harry Kane Break Alan Shearer's Premier League Goals Record?

Harry Kane's 96th-minute equalizer in Tottenham's 2-2 draw at Chelsea was his 184th Premier League goal.

Forty-two of those goals (22.83%) have come in London derbies.

Kane's header at Stamford Bridge saw him tie with Manchester City legend Sergio Aguero for the record of most Premier League goals scored for one club.

While Kane needs just one more goal to claim that record outright, he requires 77 more to overtake Alan Shearer as the Premier League's all-time top scorer.

Shearer scored 260 EPL goals in 441 games for Blackburn Rovers and Newcastle United between 1992 and 2006.

Kane has long been expected to eventually usurp Shearer but when is that likely to happen?

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Let's use mathematics to answer that question...

When Kane Is Likely To Break Shearer's EPL Goals Record

Kane's 184 EPL goals for Spurs have come in 281 games at a rate of one goal every 1.53 matches.

If he continues to score at that rate, it should take him approximately 118 more matches get the 77 goals needed to break Shearer's record.

Since the 2013/14 season, Kane has averaged 33.5 Premier League matches per season.

So if he continues to play and score at a similar rate, he should reach the target of 261 Premier League goals midway through the 2025/26 season aged 31.

Harry Kane pictured during Tottenham's 2-2 draw at Chelsea in August 2022

Harry Kane pictured during Tottenham's 2-2 draw at Chelsea